Executive Summary: The start of autumn 2026 is bringing together several sources of tension across international supply chains: significant congestion at Chinese ports following a succession of typhoons, continued instability around the Strait of Hormuz, and capacity adjustments by ocean carriers ahead of Golden Week. The paradox is that this operational deterioration is not necessarily accompanied by a broad-based increase in freight rates: in early September, Asia-Europe rates were easing on some routes while the risk of delays remained high. At the same time, air freight remains an essential fallback solution, but is itself under pressure. For companies, the challenge is therefore no longer simply to negotiate the best freight rate: they need to identify critical flows, secure bookings, prepare alternative solutions and arbitrate in advance between transport cost, the cost of delay and business continuity.
It is unusual for the start of the autumn logistics season to bring together so many disruptive factors at the same time. Companies are generally accustomed to managing seasonality: China’s Golden Week in early October, capacity adjustments by ocean carriers and demand peaks ahead of the year-end holiday season. But summer 2026 added a succession of weather-related disruptions across Asia and continued geopolitical instability in the Middle East to these usual seasonal patterns.
For companies importing from Asia or operating international supply chains, the equation has become more complex: less predictable lead times, greater risk of roll-overs, adjusted sailing schedules, volatile freight rates and growing pressure on alternative solutions when goods absolutely have to arrive on time.
However, it would be inaccurate to describe the current market as experiencing a uniform surge in rates. As of 3 September, Drewry’s World Container Index stood unchanged at USD 4,465 per 40-foot container, while Asia-Europe rates were declining. The pressure at the start of this autumn is therefore primarily operational: transport may temporarily become cheaper while simultaneously becoming harder to secure and predict. This disconnect between price and actual service reliability is likely to be one of the key risks that companies need to factor into their transport decisions for the remainder of the year. These Drewry figures have also been reported by several specialist publications.
Understanding the mechanisms at work is the first step towards avoiding being caught off guard by them.
China Hit by Typhoons: Exceptional Port Congestion
The 2026 typhoon season has significantly disrupted several major Asian ports. Typhoon Saudel, the eighteenth named typhoon of the year according to Chinese authorities, repeatedly affected the country’s eastern coastline before making another landfall in Fujian in early September. It followed several other weather events that had already disrupted port operations over the preceding weeks.
The consequences are cumulative: when a terminal suspends or slows operations for several hours or days, vessels continue to arrive. Once operations resume, container ships reach berths at the same time, storage yards remain heavily occupied and subsequent rotations are delayed in turn. A temporary weather disruption can therefore continue to affect shipping schedules for several weeks.
In early September, waiting times were reaching up to ten days at several major Chinese ports, including Shanghai and Ningbo. This figure has been reported by both ICIS and Linerlytica, whose data have also been cited by The Loadstar and several operational logistics providers.
The scale of global congestion also provides an indication of the amount of capacity effectively tied up. As of 1 September, Linerlytica estimated that around 3.92 million TEU, representing approximately 11% of the global container fleet, was affected by port congestion. A few days earlier, the volume had even exceeded 4.3 million TEU. An important distinction must nevertheless be made: although this volume exceeds the peak recorded during the Covid period in absolute terms, the global fleet is now larger. The proportion of capacity immobilised therefore remains below the maximum level recorded in 2022.
For companies, the issue is not limited to vessels waiting at anchor. Congestion creates cascading effects: delayed ETDs, less reliable ETAs, schedule changes, missed transshipment connections, container accumulation at terminals and the possibility of roll-overs onto later sailings.
This situation is occurring at a particularly sensitive time. China’s National Day holiday will officially run from 1 to 7 October 2026, according to the calendar published by China’s State Council. These dates are also confirmed by several official Chinese government portals.
For European importers, the window for securing shipments before Golden Week is therefore becoming increasingly narrow.
Blank Sailings and the Strait of Hormuz: Two Sources of Pressure Reducing Supply Chain Visibility
Port congestion is being compounded by capacity adjustments implemented by ocean carriers.
According to Drewry’s Cancelled Sailings Tracker published on 4 September, 47 blank sailings are expected across the main East-West trades between 7 September and 11 October, out of 729 scheduled sailings. This represents 6% of planned departures. Of these cancellations, 17% concern the Asia-North Europe and Mediterranean trades. These figures have also been reported by several maritime transport media outlets and industry observers.
This distinction is important: the 17% figure should not be interpreted as meaning that 17% of Asia-Europe sailings have been cancelled. It represents the share of that trade among all blank sailings identified by Drewry.
Nevertheless, the programmes published directly by the carriers confirm that capacity adjustments are very real. Maersk has announced several blank sailings on its Far East-Europe services around weeks 40 and 41. MSC is also planning a number of cancelled sailings across its Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean networks, while Hapag-Lloyd has published the affected departures and alternative options available to customers.
For shippers, the message is straightforward: a booking secured today should not be regarded as an absolute guarantee of the planned ETD, and even less so of the final ETA. Companies now need to monitor the actual service, the vessel concerned, available alternatives and the immediately preceding or following rotations.
The Strait of Hormuz represents another source of uncertainty.
The situation has still not returned to normal. At the end of August, the International Maritime Organization stated that, six months after the conflict began, the situation in the Strait remained unresolved. In early September, it continued to publish specific updates on transits and incidents affecting commercial navigation in the region. The latest data also show that traffic remains extremely volatile amid renewed tensions between Iran and the United States.
However, an important shortcut must be avoided: the Strait of Hormuz is not a direct transit point for a container travelling between China and Northern Europe. Its impact on these flows is therefore more indirect. A prolonged crisis in the Gulf can affect energy supplies, fuel costs, marine insurance, services calling at Middle Eastern ports and, more broadly, carriers’ ability to stabilise their international networks.
These disruptions are also combining with routing patterns around Suez and the Red Sea that remain subject to change. Drewry itself notes that congestion, capacity changes and routing adjustments continue to complicate vessel deployment and the recovery of shipping schedules.
It is precisely this accumulation of factors that makes the current situation difficult to assess: the market still has theoretical capacity, but securing the right capacity at the right port, on the right service and at the right time is becoming more difficult.
The Shift to Air Freight: The Trap of Emergency Surcharges
When ocean freight becomes too slow, air freight naturally becomes the fallback solution.
This is a perfectly rational operational response when a delay threatens production, a customer delivery or a stock-out. But it becomes expensive when the decision is taken too late, after all other margins for manoeuvre have already disappeared.
Air freight remains structurally far more expensive than ocean freight. More importantly, its own capacity is not unlimited.
The latest data from the International Air Transport Association show that in July 2026, global air cargo demand increased by 3.9% year on year, while available capacity rose by only 1.7%. These IATA figures have also been reported by several specialist industry publications. The organisation also highlights the fact that corridors linked to the Gulf remain affected by tensions in the Middle East.
This does not mean that all air freight routes are saturated or that prices are increasing across the board. But it does confirm that air freight cannot be treated as an unlimited emergency capacity that can simply be activated at the last minute.
The problem is therefore not the solution itself. The problem is when it is used.
A company that waits until its container has already been rolled, its stock is nearly exhausted and a customer deadline is under threat puts itself in the weakest possible position when buying air freight: quantities are fixed, lead times are non-negotiable and there is little room to choose between routes or providers.
The aim should instead be to integrate air freight into the business continuity plan before the situation becomes critical.
It is not always necessary to switch an entire order to air. For some flows, a split shipment can make it possible to move only the essential references or quantities by air, while the remainder continues by sea. The cost of the emergency solution is then concentrated on the part of the shipment that genuinely protects business continuity.
For a CFO or Supply Chain Director, the relevant decision is therefore no longer simply “ocean or air?”. It becomes:
How does the additional cost of air freight compare with the economic cost of a delay?
If a few pallets can prevent a production shutdown, a major stock-out or the loss of a strategic order, the calculation can look very different from a simple comparison between two transport rates.
How to Prevent Delays from Turning into Additional Costs: Priority Actions
Most international transport disruptions cannot be prevented by the shipper. Their economic impact can, however, often be reduced if decisions are taken early enough.
Map your actual exposure.
Which flows currently depend on Shanghai, Ningbo or other congested ports? Which containers already have confirmed bookings? Which products have several weeks of stock available, and which ones could halt production or sales within a few days? This analysis makes it possible to focus transport management on genuinely critical goods rather than treating every shipment with the same level of urgency.
Anticipate blank sailings ahead of Golden Week.
Carrier schedules already show several adjustments around weeks 40 and 41. For goods with a firm required delivery date, companies should verify ETDs, cut-off dates, scheduled vessels and alternative options now rather than waiting for notification of a schedule change.
Define in advance the trigger for switching to a faster solution.
A shift to air freight should not be decided only once a stock-out becomes certain. A trigger can be established based on stock coverage, customer delivery dates, order margins or the potential cost of a shutdown. Once that threshold is reached, the company still has time to compare solutions rather than being forced to buy emergency capacity.
Consider hybrid solutions.
A split shipment, an alternative port of departure, a different carrier, another ocean service or, depending on the route, a multimodal solution may sometimes protect business continuity without transferring the entire shipment to a much more expensive mode of transport.
Monitor surcharges and transport invoicing.
Periods of disruption tend to generate new cost items: congestion, routing changes, fuel, storage or other operational charges. This does not mean that such surcharges are automatically unjustified. Their application should nevertheless be checked against commercial terms, quotations and existing contractual agreements. Invoice control helps prevent an operational disruption from also turning into uncontrolled budget drift.
Secure the documentary implications of any transport change.
A switch to air freight, a change of freight forwarder, routing or point of entry may alter operational instructions. Information relating to the goods, their value, origin, tariff classification, Incoterm and commercial documents must remain consistent with the transport solution actually used, in order to avoid a measure intended to save time ultimately creating a customs clearance blockage.
In this environment, the right approach is less about trying to predict the next disruption with precision and more about having several workable scenarios ready. This is the logic behind ThemaTrans’ support for companies: analysing flows, challenging transport solutions, identifying alternatives and linking operational decisions to their actual impact on costs, lead times and business continuity.
FAQ: Navigating Ocean Freight Disruption in Autumn 2026
Q: My ocean carrier is charging me a “congestion surcharge” following the typhoons. Is this legitimate?
A: A congestion surcharge may be provided for under commercial terms or applied under certain operational circumstances. However, its amount, effective date, the flow concerned and the negotiated pricing conditions should all be checked. The objective is not to assume that the surcharge is illegitimate, but to verify that it corresponds to the service actually purchased and to the applicable contractual conditions.
Q: How can I anticipate transport capacity shortages on my Asian import flows through the end of the year?
A: The first step is to distinguish critical flows from those able to absorb a delay. For critical flows, bookings should be secured earlier, blank sailings and actual carrier schedules should be monitored, an alternative departure or provider should be identified, and the conditions that would justify switching to a faster solution should be defined in advance. Diversifying the carrier base can help, but it needs to be combined with active monitoring of departures and stock levels.
Q: Should I switch to air freight to secure my critical flows?
A: Not systematically. Air freight becomes relevant when the economic cost of a delay exceeds the additional cost required to accelerate the shipment. The decision should take into account the value of the order, its margin, stock coverage, stock-out risk and the potential impact on production or the customer. In some cases, shipping only a few pallets or critical references by air may be enough to protect operations.
Q: Which indicators should I monitor to anticipate another wave of ocean freight disruption?
A: Several indicators should be considered together: changes in congestion at origin ports, blank sailing announcements, carrier schedules, movements in ETDs and ETAs, weather alerts, geopolitical developments at key maritime chokepoints and freight indices such as the Drewry World Container Index. No single indicator is sufficient on its own. It is the combination of these signals that makes it possible to identify deterioration early enough to act.
Conclusion: In an Unstable Market, Anticipation Becomes an Operational Advantage
The start of autumn 2026 highlights an important reality: an ocean freight market can show easing rates on certain routes while remaining difficult to manage from an operational perspective. Congestion at major Asian ports, capacity adjustments ahead of Golden Week, blank sailings, continued tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and pressure on some air freight capacity are creating an environment in which transport price alone is no longer enough to measure risk.
For companies, the objective is not to systematically shift towards faster or more expensive solutions. It is to determine which flows can absorb a delay and which cannot, and then prepare alternatives before urgency dictates the decision. Securing bookings, monitoring changes to ETDs and ETAs, identifying critical SKUs, preparing split-shipment or air freight options and controlling surcharges are becoming standard components of transport management.
In this environment, performance is no longer measured solely by the freight rate negotiated. It is also measured by the company’s ability to protect its lead times, inventory, margins and business continuity when transport conditions deteriorate.
It is precisely during these periods that an independent assessment of transport flows can support better decision-making. ThemaTrans assists companies in analysing their transport plans, identifying exposed flows, finding alternative solutions and controlling costs, with one simple objective: to turn a disruption from something suffered into a risk that is identified, assessed and controlled.
Sources
- State Council of the People’s Republic of China + Official Shanghai Portal – Public holidays in China for 2026.
- International Maritime Organization.
- Maersk – Golden Week Network Changes.
- MSC – 2026 Golden Week Sailing Programme.
- Hapag-Lloyd – Far East to Europe services during the Golden Week period, August 2026.
- IATA – Air Cargo Demand Grows 3.9% in July, August 31, 2026.
- Drewry
- Linerlytica
- ICIS
- Reuters
